Tipping Cascades, Social-Ecological Systems, and the Hottest Year in History
Climate Change Economics and the Exponential Costs to Society

About the Age of Loss and Damage

Climate change is primarily driven by the escalation of thermal energy affecting biogeophysical and socio-economic systems. While biogeophysical factors can be studied using math, physics, and historical records, socio-economic systems pose greater challenges due to the unintended consequences of human behavior and inexplicable consumer choices.

Human induced climate change is an exponential component of an unordered system (chaos theory). That means global warming is accelerating at a rapid rate in a complex way.

Unfortunately, even scientists are failing to see (let alone forecast) the rapid acceleration in climate change. Due to their complexity, the impacts of the Domino Effect are being underestimated. Tipping points are Critical Milestones that directly impact the rate of acceleration in climate change by multiplying the number and intensity of feedback loops. The Domino Effect is also known as "tipping cascades" in climate science. Cascading impacts in relation to tipping points include cascading impacts across biogeophysical and social systems. Until recently, scientist have been drastically underestimating the social-ecological systems. The University of Exeter reports, "There is a notable lack of topic clusters dedicated to how humans will be impacted by climate-related tipping cascades."

Regrettably, the United States ranks among the least prepared countries globally, with the highest percentage of climate deniers. Politicians exacerbate the problem by hindering efforts against climate change. The Republican Party dismisses it as a manufactured crisis and plans to increase fossil fuel production. Political extremists asserting that the climate crisis is manufactured employ an ironic term, considering that human manufacturing activities are the primary driver of climate change.

Under President Biden, the United States continues to be the world's largest producer of oil, including crude oil, natural gas liquids, and other petroleum products. Both political parties have concurred to allocate unlimited emergency funding for climate disasters instead of proactively preventing them. In 2023, the U.S. witnessed a record number of climate disasters exceeding one billion dollars each, totaling 28 separate weather and climate-related events.

In June 2024, the Supreme Court significantly increased its authority and stripped the EPA of the ability to enforce environmental protection laws. This arrogance and ignorance mean that "worst-case scenarios" are now "best-case scenarios" for the acceleration of climate change. These factors have altered our climate model, shifting the projected maximum temperature rise from 4°C over the next millennium to a probable increase of 9°C this century. A 9°C increase would bring the Earth close to a wet-bulb temperature incapable of sustaining human life.

The Age of Loss and Damage is a new way of thinking about economics by combining economics, climate science, statistics, and physics. Until now, economic models have been unfit to capture the full extent of climate damage. Traditionally, "integrated assessment models" (IAMs) were used to forecast "shock" events. IAMs use "quadratic function" to calculate GDP losses by squaring the temperature change, yet ignore other methods (such as the exponential function) that are better suited for rapid change. "Climate change is fundamentally different to other shocks because once it has hit, it doesn't go away," said Thierry Philipponnat, author of a report by Finance Watch, a Brussels-based public interest NGO on financial issues. "And if the fundamental assumption is flawed, all the rest makes little sense -- if any."

Reuters reported, "Critics say this (IAMs) choice is doomed to underplay the likely impact - particularly if the planet hits environmental tipping points in which damage is not only irreversible but happens at an ever-accelerating rate." Thierry Philipponnat's report, Finance in a Hot House World, concludes: "Climate risk is growing to disruptive levels throughout the financial system and the guardians of financial stability urgently need to adapt their tools to regain control." The report calls for economic models that do not mislead, scenario analyses that prepare the market, and a new prudential tool to address the build-up of systemic climate risk.

Traditional economics is based upon the "costs and benefits" to society. Since there are no known long-term benefits of climate change to society, the Age of Loss and Damage economics focuses on the exponential costs of climate change to society.

2023: The Hottest Year in Human History
2023 was a wake-up call to both biogeophysical and social-ecological scientists. The record breaking physical and economical impacts could be felt worldwide. The record warming year was seventeen times greater than any other record increase in history. Typically record breaking temperatures are measured in 100^th degrees. There were also 200 consecutive days of record breaking temperatures. Typically there are one or two record breaking days in row. The graphic shows how far out of skew the 2023 anomalies are compared to the previous record set in 2016. The increase in intensity and frequency of record breaking heat requires forecasting models to be recast.

2023 Biogeophysical Records

• 2023 is confirmed as the warmest calendar year in global temperature data records going back to 1850
• 2023 had a global average temperature of 14.98℃, 0.17℃ higher than the previous highest annual value in 2016
• 2023 was 0.60℃ warmer than the 1991-2020 average and 1.48℃ warmer than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level
• It is likely that a 12-month period ending in January or February 2024 will exceed 1.5℃ above the pre-industrial level
• 2023 marks the first time on record that every day within a year has exceeded 1℃ above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level. Close to 50% of days were more than 1.5℃ warmer then the 1850-1900 level, and two days in November were, for the first time, more than 2℃ warmer.
• Annual average air temperatures were the warmest on record, or close to the warmest, over sizeable parts of all ocean basins and all continents except Australia
• Each month from June to December in 2023 was warmer than the corresponding month in any previous year
• July and August 2023 were the warmest two months on record. Boreal summer (June-August) was also the warmest season on record
• September 2023 was the month with a temperature deviation above the 1991-2020 average larger than any month in the ERA5 dataset
• December 2023 was the warmest December on record globally, with an average temperature of 13.51℃, 0.85℃ above the 1991-2020 average and 1.78℃ above the 1850-1900 level for the month. You can access information specific for December 2023 in our monthly bulletin
• 2023 saw a transition to El Nino. In spring 2023, La Nina came to an end and El Nino conditions began to develop, with the WMO declaring the onset of El Nino in early July.
• High SSTs in most ocean basins, and in particular in the North Atlantic, played an important role in the record-breaking global SSTs
• The unprecedented SSTs were associated with marine heatwaves around the globe, including in parts of the Mediterranean, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, Indian Ocean and North Pacific, and much of the North Atlantic
• 2023 was remarkable for Antarctic sea ice: it reached record low extents for the corresponding time of the year in 8 months. Both the daily and monthly extents reached all-time minima in February 2023
• Arctic sea ice extent at its annual peak in March ranked amongst the four lowest for the time of the year in the satellite record. The annual minimum in September was the sixth-lowest
• The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane continued to increase and reached record levels in 2023, reaching 419 ppm and 1902 ppb respectively. Carbon dioxide concentrations in 2023 were 2.4 ppm higher than in 2022 and methane concentrations increased by 11 ppb.
• A large number of extreme events were recorded across the globe, including heatwaves, floods, droughts and wildfires. Estimated global wildfire carbon emissions in 2023 increased by 30% with respect to 2022 driven largely by persistent wildfires in Canada

2023 Social-Ecological Records

In 2023, the U.S. experienced 28 separate weather and climate disasters costing at least 1 billion dollars. That number puts 2023 into first place for the highest number of billion-dollar disasters in a calendar year and included:

• 1 winter storm/cold wave event (across the northeast U.S. in early-February).
• 1 wildfire event (firestorm destroying town of Lahaina on Maui Island of Hawaii).
• 1 drought and heat wave event (focused across the central and southern U.S.).
• 4 flooding events (in California, Florida, and across the eastern and northeastern U.S.).
• 2 tornado outbreaks (across the central and eastern U.S.).
• 2 tropical cyclones (Idalia in Florida and Typhoon Mawar in Guam).
• 17 severe weather/hail events (across many parts of the country).

2023 was also deadly, causing at least 492 direct or indirect fatalities -- the 8^th most disaster-related fatalities for the contiguous U.S. since 1980.

* Our climate model employs chaos theory to comprehensively consider human impacts and projects a potential global average temperature increase of 9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.