by Daniel Brouse and Sidd Mukherjee
July 12, 2025
My latest deep reflection has centered on how tipping points have triggered self-sustaining feedback loops in the climate system. We knew this was coming--and it is now here. Luckily, I was prepared for that part.
What I could not fully envision in my mind's eye was how the interplay of different tipping points would ignite a domino effect so rapidly--so, so fast.
Now, I can see it clearly: the nonlinear, dynamic dance of economic, physical, and ecological unordered systems in real time. This is pure math and science, visibly unfolding for all to see, transforming abstract models into undeniable, measurable reality.
To understand unordered systems, you must "zoom out." Imagine standing in the eye of a hurricane, unable to grasp its structure from within, then pulling back to see the swirling system from a satellite view. Only then can you perceive its shape, patterns, and momentum. Climate science and economics share this paradox: from within, the chaos feels incomprehensible, but from a higher vantage, the pattern is clear.
I offer this perspective to help you grasp the critical reality of where we stand today:
We are witnessing at least nine major tipping points that are already in play, with dominoes falling and each accelerating the collapse of the next. Crossing these tipping points represents a threshold beyond which impacts on global ecosystems and human societies become irreversible within human timescales.
1. Greenland Ice Sheet Collapse
Accelerated melting is injecting vast freshwater into the ocean, disrupting marine ecosystems, weakening the AMOC, and raising sea levels.
2. West Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse
Rapid destabilization threatens to raise sea levels by meters, displacing populations and eroding infrastructure globally.
3. Labrador-Irminger Seas / Subpolar Gyre Convection Collapse
Collapse of this convection disrupts the AMOC, a critical regulator of global heat distribution, weather stability, and ocean health.
4. East Antarctic Subglacial Basins Collapse
Grounded below sea level, these basins are vulnerable to rapid ice loss, accelerating sea level rise and destabilizing coastal regions.
5. Arctic Winter Sea Ice Collapse
Shrinking winter ice amplifies Arctic warming, disrupting jet streams, altering ocean currents, and triggering further heat absorption.
6. East Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse
Long considered stable, sections of the East Antarctic are showing vulnerability to collapse, with the potential to significantly raise sea levels.
7. Amazon Rainforest Dieback
Deforestation and warming threaten the Amazon's water recycling and carbon storage roles, turning it from a carbon sink to a carbon source.
8. Boreal Permafrost Collapse
Thawing permafrost is releasing methane and CO₂ in massive quantities, creating a powerful feedback loop of accelerated warming.
9. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Collapse
Potential collapse of the AMOC could lead to abrupt weather pattern shifts, including intensified droughts, storms, and regional cooling in some areas, while exacerbating global climate instability.
These are not in strict chronological order, as the tipping points are dynamically interconnected, but the sequence of total collapse impacts the severity and global reach of the consequences.
As my colleague Sidd noted, "Number 7 might be first -- Amazon Rainforest Dieback"
These tipping points do not act in isolation. Each collapse amplifies stress on others, triggering tipping cascades:
Melting Greenland ice weakens the AMOC, which alters weather patterns, drying the Amazon, triggering dieback that releases CO₂, further warming the Arctic, collapsing permafrost, and amplifying ocean heating.
Changes in Arctic sea ice affect jet stream patterns, causing persistent heat domes, droughts, and flooding cycles, which destabilize ecosystems and food systems.
The weakening of the AMOC is linked to increased East Coast flooding, European storm intensification, and droughts in the Sahel, while simultaneously accelerating Antarctic ice melt.
We are seeing chaotic systems align into self-perpetuating loops, moving climate change from linear, human-driven emissions to nonlinear, nature-driven escalation.
It is now clear: climate change has entered a phase where natural systems themselves are the drivers. Even if humans ceased all emissions today, these processes will continue for centuries or millennia, while continuing emissions add fuel to the fire.
Understanding and communicating the urgency of these tipping cascades is essential not only for scientists but for policymakers, businesses, and every individual. We must accelerate adaptation strategies while urgently reducing emissions to slow additional triggers.
The sooner we act, the more we can reduce the damage of the tipping cascades that are now unstoppable but can still be limited in scope and speed.
* Our climate model — incorporating complex social-ecological feedback loops within a dynamic, non-linear system — projects that global temperatures could rise by up to 9°C (16.2°F) within this century. This far exceeds earlier estimates, which predicted a 4°C rise over the next thousand years, and signals a dramatic acceleration of warming.Read: Solutions to the Fossil Fuel Economy and the Myths Accelerating Climate and Economic Collapse
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